Unsold Inventory hits 2-Year Low in Q4 2018 – ANAROCK

www.newsbarons.com

Avg. property sizes across top 7 cities shrink by 8% compared to 2017 & 19% since 2016

Highlights:

Significant drop from 47 months of inventory overhang in Q4 2017

NCR still constitutes 52 months’ inventory overhang; Bengaluru & Hyderabad at all-time low of 17 months each

Sales exceed number of units launched second year in a row

 

Despite all headwinds including the liquidity crisis in 2018, housing sales rose by 18% and new launches by 33% across the top 7 cities compared to 2017. Residential inventory overhang reduced to a year-low from 47 months in Q4 2017 to 33 months in Q4 2018 across the top 7 cities.

The DeMo effect in late 2016 had pushed up unsold inventory to 47 months in Q4 2017 from 40 months in Q4 2016. An inventory overhang of 18-24 months signifies a fairly healthy market.

“Having absorbed a lot of the impact of various structural changes, the Indian real estate sector seemed poised to grow from the previous year,” says Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants.

“However, the issue of stalled projects and liquidity crisis continued to confound the housing sector in 2018, though it continued its transition into a relatively more transparent and end-user driven market. End-users accelerated growth while investors shifted focus towards alternate asset classes such as commercial, retail and warehousing, which did fairly well during the year.”

“Builders very extremely cautious about launching projects to align supply with the existing buyer demand. This helped sales pick up momentum in 2018. Simultaneously, builders reduced the average property sizes to align their offerings with the highly-incentivized affordable housing bracket. The affordable segment spearheaded residential growth in 2018.”

Pan-India Inventory Overhang (in Months)*

Pan-India Inventory Overhang (in Months)

Source: ANAROCK Research (*Months inventory measures how many months it will take for the current unsold housing stock to sell)

2018 New Launch Tracker

The top 7 cities recorded new unit launches of around 1,95,300 units in 2018 against 1,46,860 units in 2017. The affordable segment comprised the lion’s share at 40%. Major cities contributing to 2018 new unit launches included MMR, NCR, Pune, and Bengaluru, together accounting for 74% new supply.

  • Bengaluru saw approx. 34,880 units launched in 2018 – a whopping 91% increase from 2017. More than 80% new supply added was in sub Rs. 80 lakhs budget segment.
  • MMR added approx. 59,930 units in 2018, a yearly increase of 12% over the preceding year. Approx. 40% new supply was added in the affordable segment.
  • Chennai added new supply of 15,680 units in 2018 compared to 7,940 units in 2017 – a massive rise of 98%. Approx. 49% new supply was added in the affordable segment.
  • Pune added 24,430 units in 2018, a significant increase of 29% over 2017. More than 90% new supply was added in sub Rs. 80 lakhs budget segment, out of which 52% comprised of affordable projects.
  • Hyderabad added 17,290 units in 2018, a significant increase of 43% over 2017. Approx. 58% new supply was added in the budget segment of Rs. 40- 80 lakhs in 2018.
  • NCR added approx. 26,010 units in 2018, a yearly increase of 17% over previous year. Approx. 47% new supply catered to the affordable segment
  • Kolkata added approx. 17,290 units in 2018, a significant increase of 25% over 2017. Approx. 73% new supply was added in affordable segment.
City-wise Supply (In Units) and Y-o-Y & Q-o-Q percentage change
Cities Name 2018 2017 %Change (2017 Vs 2018) Q4 2018 Q4 2017 %Change (Q4 17 Vs Q4 2018)
NCR 26,010 22,180 17% 8,800 3,770 133%
MMR 59,930 53,700 12% 16,590 12,050 38%
Bengaluru 34,880 18,290 91% 11,610 3,510 231%
Pune 24,430 18,950 29% 6,730 2,720 148%

Hyderabad

17,290 12,110 43% 3,940 3,700 7%
Chennai 15,680 7,940 98%